The

AL-LO-CA-TOOR / NOUN

one who foresees the shift to the new allocation economy. the future belongs to those who allocate intelligence, compute, capital, agents and attention.

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tsmc is the governor on the ai bubble

Baker's sharpest point is that AI demand may be real and still become a bubble if supply is allowed to run too far ahead. In his view, TSMC's wafer discipline is the hidden governor: it keeps Nvidia scarcity valuable, slows reckless overbuild, and forces every frontier model, chip startup, hyperscaler, and application company to compete for constrained compute. Baker is saying AI is not mainly limited by ideas right now. It is limited by the physical system that makes and powers the computers: chips, wafer capacity, data centers, energy, financing, and time. If too many chips and data centers get built too quickly, the industry can create a bubble. If too few get built, AI companies cannot meet demand. TSMC matters because it controls much of the advanced chip supply, so its capacity decisions decide how fast the whole AI market can grow. This is one of the cleanest allocation-economy sources in the Genesis set. Baker's argument turns AI from a software story into a capacity-allocation system: TSMC allocates wafers, Nvidia allocates scarce accelerators, frontier labs allocate tokens, data-center builders allocate power and permits, creditors allocate against GPU useful life, and startups fight to be close enough to token flow to capture value. The issue is not whether AI demand exists; it is who controls the bottlenecks that decide how much intelligence can actually be delivered.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy and Invest Like the Best PodcastGavin Baker
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